Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 32.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 34.9S/64.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 37.8S/69.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 18 UTC: 40.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/11 06 UTC: 42.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DURING LAST NIGHT, CONVECTION HAS LIGHLTLY ORGANIZED ITSELF WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST HOURS, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED LIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, MORE AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED, OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26°C (SOUTH OF 30°S).