Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/08 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9S / 57.4E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 MOINS /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 32.2S/58.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 35.3S/61.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/10 00 UTC: 36.8S/66.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/10 12 UTC: 39.3S/72.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/11 00 UTC: 42.7S/79.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/11 12 UTC: 45.6S/85.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING GLOBALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. CONVECTION STARTED DO DISORGANIZED ITSELF DUE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING NEXT NIGHT, UNDERGOING A MORE AND MORE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26°C (SOUTH OF 30°S).