Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 2000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/06 12 UTC: 07.3S/88.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.4S/88.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 07.6S/88.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 08.2S/89.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 08.8S/89.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.5S/89.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ WINDSHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY DECREASED OVER THE AREA, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS HOWEVER POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. MOSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS ARE RATHER WEAK. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAIR. QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1212z REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED CENTRE. NWP DISAGREE BY NOW WITH TRACK FORECAST AND ONLY DEEPEN THE LOW AT MEDIUM RANGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.