Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.1S/84.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.5S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.7S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 10.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS AN ELONGATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND DISORGANIZED. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, THE MONSOON FLOW AND THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AND FEW NWP MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.