Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.7S/86.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.8S/87.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.2S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 08.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 08.5S/90.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/10 00 UTC: 08.9S/90.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE SYSTEME REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED : RECENT ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VERY FLUCTUATING AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INSUFFICIENT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.