Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 89.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/13 18 UTC: 13.9S/89.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/14 06 UTC: 14.2S/88.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 14.5S/86.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 14.8S/85.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 15.2S/84.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.6S/83.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND AN ASYMETRIC LLCC ; MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A BADLY DEFINED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.