Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 89.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 00 UTC: 13.6S/88.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 14.2S/86.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 15.1S/85.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.9S/84.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 18.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 20.7S/83.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (AQUA 0801Z AND TRMM 0925Z), THE CONVECTION HARDLY CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.