Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 06 UTC: 13.3S/88.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 13.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 13.7S/86.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 14.3S/84.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.5S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 17.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=2.5+ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (WINDSAT 1211Z AND SSMIS 1434Z), THE CONVECTION HARDLY CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.