Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 13.8S/87.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 15.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/83.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 17.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.0S/81.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.