Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 15.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 16.3S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.3S/85.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 19.6S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 20.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST NIGHT AND HAS INTENSIFYED (CF TRMM AT 0017UTC AND SSMIS AT 0142UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY). THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IN RELATIONSHIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 80E, ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 26.0 C.