Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 15.7S/87.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.1S/86.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 19.0S/84.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 21.2S/84.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 23.1S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 25.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ; CI=3.5- "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.