Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/84.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 19.6S/83.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 21.7S/83.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 23.6S/82.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/18 00 UTC: 24.8S/80.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0 THE CENTRE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS RELOCATED TO THE WEST TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE RECENT MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (AQUA 1935Z). "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.