Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0600 UTC : 15.0S / 86.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 15.3S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.6S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 15.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER WATER. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NWP MODELS, MAIN OF THEM STILL MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS (ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, UKMO, NOGAPS), WILL ECMWF MAKE IT TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, WHICH SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER THIS SHEARED SYSTEM.