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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA)

2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 85.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.3S/84.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 16.9S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 17.6S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
"ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER WATER HAS IT GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.