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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/13/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA)

2.A POSITION 2006/04/16 AT 0600 UTC :
17.4S / 83.4E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 19.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 20.8S/81.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 22.5S/80.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0, CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING; THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
EX-ELIA SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.