Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.8S / 59.5E (TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/20 00 UTC: 03.1S/60.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/20 12 UTC: 03.4S/60.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 03.8S/60.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 04.2S/60.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 04.4S/59.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 04.7S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND VERTICAL EXTENSION IS MODERATE. NORTHEASTERLY WEAK WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO EQUATORIAL INFLOW. WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.