Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FLUCTUATING. NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO EQUATORIAL INFLOW. WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.