Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.