Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1800 UTC : 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 10.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 10.2S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 09.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 07.6S/44.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=2.0. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).