Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 08.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 07.7S/45.0E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.0S/43.5E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=1.5+. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED TO AN APPROACHING JET, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.