Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0600 UTC : 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 08.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 08.5S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 08.2S/44.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/26 06 UTC: 08.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=1.5+. RELOCATED CENTRE, 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST (TRMM 23/10 AT 0058Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.