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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2

2.A POSITION 2006/11/27 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.6S / 46.8E
(SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/11/27 12 UTC: 07.2S/45.9E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2006/11/28 00 UTC: 08.2S/44.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.2S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 10.1S/42.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 11.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 11.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING BUT LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS POOR WHILE THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. ; UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.