Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 00 UTC: 08.4S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG. HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.