Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.2S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 11.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.