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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/11/28 18 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
24H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=035KT .
48H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT .
60H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/41.2E, MAX WIND=045KT .
72H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.