Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.7S/39.3E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.5S/39.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. LAST TRMM AT 0658Z HAS SHOWN A RELIABLE POSITION NEAR 8.9S/44.2E. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED OVER TH LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.