Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 09.8S/41.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.2S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/39.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO-EXIST (TRMM 1649Z): MAIN CENTRE IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION HAS REBUILT CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.