Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 10.8S/40.0E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 11.7S/39.8E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 12.8S/39.8E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS, BUT IT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DOESN'T INTENSIFY AND REMAINS WEAK AROUND A CENTRE WHICH IS HARD TO LOCATE ON AVALAIBLE DATA (THE FINAL LOCATION HAS BEEN CHOOSED MAINLY ACCORDING TO MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY AT 0047, 0244 AND 0321Z). THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS AFRICAN COASTS BEFORE CURVING SOUTHWARDS, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTHEAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.