Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 12.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 13.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 14.3S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 15.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATERED CURVED BANDS. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWN DOWN AND STARTED TO CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. IF THIS TENDANCY IS CONRFIRMED DURING NEXT HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIGHTLY INTENSIFY ALONG AFRICAN COASTS.