Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 12.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.2S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/40.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH RECENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWARDS ALONG AFRICAN COASTS.