Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 18.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE CDO WEAKENS AND A CURVED BAND PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.