Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.7S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.3S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ ; CI=2.5 THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, AND SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS HINDERING THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION (THE WESTERN POLAR OUTFLOW SEEMS TO DISORGANIZE GRADUALLY). NEVERTHELESS, THE PERIPHERIC CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AND STILL AFFECT THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS BECOMING LESS FAVOURABLE. NEVERTHELESS, A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION CAN NOT BE LEFT OUT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ; AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.