Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.9S/42.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- ; CI=2.5 THE CDO WHICH AS JUST BUILT DURING LAST HOURS DIDN'T SUCCEED TO MAINTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MORE SHEARED.