Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 42.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 16.6S/42.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 17.8S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 18.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/41.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/04 00 UTC: 19.9S/41.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE SYSTEME IS UNDERGOING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CF TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0549UTC) AND THE THE WINDSHEAR IS MORE AND MORE STRONGER SOUTHWARDS SO ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING TOWARD A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WOULD WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35KT. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA.