Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE AND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.