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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0600 UTC :
16.7S / 42.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 17.5S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 18.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=2.5-
EX-ANITA IS COMPLETELY SHEARED, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE CLEARLY APPEARS IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITHIN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.