Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 00 UTC: 10.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SINCE LAST NIGHT, EVEN IF IT IS STILL DEPENDANT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY OF REGULAR WARNINGS.