Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 64.5E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.1S/63.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 11.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 11.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 11.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CONVECTION IS WELL REPRESENTED NEAR THE LOW CENTRE BUT REMAINS STILL LOOSELY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE. NEVERTHELESS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION DOES EXIST CONSIDERING THE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NAMELY A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.