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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 0600 UTC :
11.0S / 64.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/18 18 UTC: 11.1S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.3S/59.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.3S/58.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.2S/56.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE NIGHT: OBVIOUS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON AQUA AT 17/2121Z AND A CURVED BAND ON F13 AT 18/0211Z. EVIDENT DIFFERENCE AS WELL BETWEEN QUIKSCAT 17/1316Z WITH WEAK LLCC AND ELONGATED CENTRE, AND QUIKSCAT 18/0148Z WITH WELL DEFINED LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS.
RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.