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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1200 UTC :
10.8S / 63.1E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.8S/61.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.9S/59.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.1S/57.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.1S/55.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
DESPITE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES SLOWLY AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND.
THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.