Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 61.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/19 06 UTC: 11.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 11.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/52.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 11.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 RECENT ANIMATED METEOSAT INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. IT IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 1538Z) DEPICTING A CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, GIVING A GOOD DIVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS, LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTIMUM DUE TO A RATHER WEAK MONSOON FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, FOLLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.