Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 60.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 11.2S/58.4E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.3S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/53.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 11.5S/52.3E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 11.7S/51.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 12.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (CF. TRMM 1948Z DATA). THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING 2 OUTFLOW CHANNELS (POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD) ; IN THE LOWER LAYER, THE MONSOON FLOW IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, FOLLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.