Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 1200 UTC : 10.7S / 58.5E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 12.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z). DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT. SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYSED from 18 at 18utc, AND dVORAK RULES BROKEN IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWRADS AT THE END OF FORCAST.