Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 56.2E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.8S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BROKES THE DVORAK RULES WITH D3.0/24H. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (2 GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANELS AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT). IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED TO THE CENTER. AT 2230UTC SYSTEM'S EYE WAS ABOUT 45 KM IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO AGALEGA STATION WHERE 10MN WIND WAS ONLY 25KT WITH A MAXIMUM GUST UP TO 40KT, AT 2200UTC SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN AGALEGA WAS 990.1 HPA. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. A PART OF THEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL AND THE OTHER PART FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.