Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 55.0E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 040 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.2S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 13.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM AS REMAINED AT THE ITC STAGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM, WITH VERY SMALL EXTENTION OF STRONG WINDS (ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AND AGALEGA DATA) NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.