Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 10.3S / 54.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.1S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 11.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ACTUAL EYE CYCLE (SEE SSMI AT 0416Z) GENERATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF BONDO, WITH AN EMBEDDED EYE ON LAST IMAGES. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY, UNTIL THE END OF THE EYE CYCLE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYE WALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE AND STORM WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. SOME OF THEM MAKE IT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARII.