Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/20 AT 1800 UTC : 10.0S / 53.1E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 09.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.8S/47.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE CYCLE EYE, THAT SEEMS TO BE ENDED (F16 20/1654Z). THE EYE REMAINS OBVIOUS ON THE MW IMAGERY (F16 20/1654Z). BONDO SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE EYEWALL, BUT THE EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE FORCE AND STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ENLARGED, REMAINING LIMITED FOR THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. SOME OF THEM TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THREATENING MAYOTTE AT MEDIUM RANGE, OTHERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO SCENARII.