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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/3/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0000 UTC :
9.7S / 52.2E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 09.4S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 10.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/48.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 12.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOMED COMPACT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.BONDO SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 12 HOURS.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND.
AFTER CURVING, AT MEDIUM RANGE, TRACKS SPREAD OVER A SECTOR FROM MAYOTTE TO VOHEMAR.
THE FINAL FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS OF THOSE SCENARII.