Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/3/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 51.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 09.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.0S/47.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/46.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.3S/46.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 14.6S/45.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" ORGANIZES AGAIN, BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER (CF. F15 0444Z). WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS. AT PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.