Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 50.9E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 09.7S/49.6E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.7S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/47.5E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/45.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.5- AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" DOES NOT SEEM CLEARLY ORGANIZED : THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER (CF. AMSU 0639Z AND 0953Z) AND THE EYE STRUCTURE FLUCTUATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO A REGION OF MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS SLOWED DOWN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS AT 6/7 KT ; IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.